Week 7 NFL betting trends to know
The 2019-20 NFL season continues to be all about the underdog.
Last week, underdogs went 10-4 against the spread (ATS), and they now are 53-37-2 ATS on the season (.589), including Denver’s loss on Thursday. Even more impressively, road teams were 7-3 ATS in Week 6, and they now are 42-21-1 ATS this season (.667).
This week, one of the major themes involves West Coast teams playing in the early time slot. Four of the five teams based in the Pacific Time Zone play at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, as the Los Angeles Rams, Oakland Raiders, San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers head east.
However, the narrative of those teams struggling coming east has been flipped on its head recently. Those five West Coast squads are 7-2 ATS this season in early games, and over the past two seasons, they are 5-0 ATS as favorites (like the Rams and 49ers are this week).
As for the entire Week 7 slate, here are some of the notable trends.
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
• Arizona is 2-0 ATS in 1 p.m. ET games this season; however, since 2016, Arizona is 4-13 ATS in these games.
• New York is 2-8-1 ATS at home over the past two seasons.
• Daniel Jones is 2-0 ATS this season against teams with losing records and 0-2 this season against teams with winning records.
• Deshaun Watson is 10-2 ATS in his career as an underdog (6-6 straight up).
• Houston is 3-9-1 ATS in 13 meetings against Indianapolis since 2013 (3-7-1 ATS under coach Bill O’Brien), including playoffs. However, Houston has won three of the past four road meetings outright (3-1 ATS).
• Coach Frank Reich is 8-1 ATS and SU against teams that entered the game with winning records, despite being underdogs in six of those games. He is 3-0 ATS as a favorite against teams with winning records.
• Miami is the second team since the 1970 merger to be an underdog of at least 14 points in four of its first six games of a season (1977 Seahawks).
• Buffalo is 6-1 SU and ATS in its past seven home meetings against Miami.
• Buffalo has covered six of its past seven games dating back to last season.
• This is Buffalo’s largest spread as a favorite since 1992. Prior to this week, Buffalo had never been more than a seven-point favorite under Sean McDermott.
• All five Buffalo games have gone under the total this season.
• Minnesota is 0-6 ATS with Kirk Cousins in games for which the line is at or within three points of pick ’em.
• Minnesota is 11-3 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons with Cousins.
• Matthew Stafford is 5-10-3 ATS in his career against Minnesota.
Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-5), 1 p.m. ET
• Since 2014, teams coming off a bye (Oakland) are just 2-7-1 ATS against teams coming off a Monday game (Green Bay). Since 1990, teams off a bye facing a team that played on Monday night are just 13-26-2 ATS.
• Since 2012, Oakland is 10-19-1 ATS in nonconference games
• Oakland is 3-2 outright despite being an underdog in each game. Entering this season, 137 teams were underdogs in each of their first six games, and only Cleveland in 2011 won four of those games outright.
• This is Oakland’s fourth straight 1 p.m. ET game; the Raiders are 2-1 ATS and outright in those games.
• Jacksonville is 3-5 SU and ATS as a road favorite under Doug Marrone.
• Teams 0-4 or worse are 13-29-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2009.
• Andy Dalton is 7-2 ATS and 5-4 SU in his career as an underdog against teams that entered the game with losing records.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET
• Sean McVay is 11-0 SU in road games against teams that entered with losing records (8-3 ATS).
• Los Angeles has covered five straight road games dating back to last season, including the playoffs (3-0 this season).
• Over the past two seasons, Atlanta is 6-16 ATS, the worst record in the NFL. The Falcons have failed to cover in four straight games, and they are 1-5 ATS this season, tied with Washington for the worst ATS mark in the NFL.
San Francisco 49ers (-10) at Washington Redskins, 1 p.m. ET
• Since 2007, teams 3-0 or better SU are 10-2 ATS against winless teams.
• San Francisco is 2-5 ATS as a favorite of at least three points under Kyle Shanahan. Prior to this week, San Francisco had never been favored by more than 6.5 points under Shanahan.
• Washington has lost seven straight home games, going 1-6 ATS, including 0-5 ATS in its past five home games (0-3 this season).
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5), 4:05 p.m. ET
• Anthony Lynn is 5-0-1 ATS on the road against teams that entered the game with losing records.
• Tennessee’s past five games went under the total. The Titans are 1-4 ATS in those games.
• Tennessee is 0-3 outright this season as a favorite. All three games went under, as Tennessee averaged 10.3 points per game.
• Baltimore is 0-4-1 ATS in five games this season since beating Miami 59-10 (and covering) in Week 1.
• Baltimore is 4-1 ATS as an underdog over the past two seasons. The only time it didn’t cover was in Week 3 against Kansas City this season, when it lost by five as a 4.5-point underdog (line was at least 5.5 for most of the week).
• Seattle is 0-3 ATS at home this season.
• New Orleans is 4-0 SU and ATS this season in Teddy Bridgewater starts. Bridgewater is 27-7 ATS overall and 15-2 ATS as an underdog in his career. Both are the best by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era (minimum 15 starts).
• Chicago has lost five straight games after its bye week, including each of the past three seasons as a favorite.
• Chicago is 7-1 ATS as a regular-season home favorite under Matt Nagy.
• Dallas has lost three straight games, all as a favorite, for the first time since 1979. Dallas has not lost four straight games, all as a favorite, since 1974.
• The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS as a favorite of four or fewer points since the start of last season.
• Dallas has won and covered each of the past three meetings.
• The under is 24-10 when New England has been a road favorite since 2015, including playoffs.
• Over the past 15 seasons, New York is 9-3-2 ATS as a home underdog of at least seven points.
• New York has covered five of the past six home meetings, though it failed to cover last season with Josh McCown at quarterback.
• Six of the past seven meetings went under the total. The one exception was in Week 3 this season, when the game finished with 44 points (one point over the total), after New York scored two non-offensive touchdowns in the final 16 minutes.